Jablonec B vs Velke Hamry
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-23 · 10:15 CET
WDWDW
LLLLLThe score model made a Jablonec B win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 6:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec B 1.75 – 1.18 Velke Hamry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec B win | 50.2% | 50.2% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 24.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Velke Hamry win | 25.5% | 24.8% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 58.9% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 38.9% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 60.1% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 40.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jablonec B 41.3 / Velke Hamry 23.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.