Mlada Boleslav B vs Neratovice
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-22 · 10:15 CET
WWLWL
LDWLDThe score model made a Mlada Boleslav B win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav B 2.37 – 1.09 Neratovice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 65.5% | 64.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.8% | 20.2% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Neratovice win | 15.7% | 15.5% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | 63.4% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.4% | 42.7% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 56.8% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 43.5% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav B 41.3 / Neratovice 23.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.