Brozany vs Pardubice B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-16 · 17:00 CET
LDDWL
WDDDWThe score model makes a Brozany win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Brozany win — 38.5% vs 29.7% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brozany 1.50 – 1.45 Pardubice B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brozany win | 38.5% | 29.7% | +8.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.7% | -1.5% |
| Pardubice B win | 36.3% | 43.5% | -7.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 57.0% | -0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 36.9% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 60.2% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 39.0% | -2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brozany 41.5 / Pardubice B 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.