Teplice B vs Brozany
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 11:00 CET
LWWWD
WDLDDThe score model made a Teplice B win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 5:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teplice B 1.50 – 1.18 Brozany.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice B win | 44.3% | 48.5% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Brozany win | 29.4% | 26.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 55.4% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 35.4% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 57.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 40.6% | -7.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Teplice B 40.9 / Brozany 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.