Benatky n. Jiz. vs Hradec Kralove B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
WLDDW
WDDLDThe score model made a Benatky n. Jiz. win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benatky n. Jiz. 1.73 – 1.59 Hradec Kralove B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benatky n. Jiz. win | 41.2% | 42.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Hradec Kralove B win | 35.2% | 32.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 59.7% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 38.4% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 62.5% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 41.3% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Benatky n. Jiz. 33.4 / Hradec Kralove B 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.