Velke Hamry vs Zapy
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-15 · 10:30 CET
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WWWDWThe score model made a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Velke Hamry 0.97 – 2.10 Zapy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velke Hamry win | 16.3% | 19.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 23.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Zapy win | 63.0% | 57.3% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 57.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 37.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 56.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 40.2% | +4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Velke Hamry 22.8 / Zapy 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.