Zapy vs Neratovice
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-09 · 17:00 CET
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LDWLDThe score model made a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 81%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 6:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zapy 3.05 – 0.83 Neratovice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zapy win | 81.2% | 62.7% | +18.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 12.0% | 20.4% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Neratovice win | 6.8% | 16.9% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.2% | 64.8% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.1% | 45.1% | +9.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 59.8% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.1% | 44.8% | +8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zapy 40.5 / Neratovice 21.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.