Varnsdorf vs Benatky n. Jiz.
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-09 · 17:00 CET
WWLWW
WLDDWThe score model made a Varnsdorf win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnsdorf 1.75 – 1.65 Benatky n. Jiz..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnsdorf win | 40.6% | 50.3% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 23.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Benatky n. Jiz. win | 36.3% | 25.7% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 62.3% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.2% | 41.9% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 62.8% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.1% | 42.9% | +7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnsdorf 21.9 / Benatky n. Jiz. 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.