Hradec Kralove B vs Pardubice B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-09 · 10:15 CET
WDDLD
WLWWDThe score model made a Hradec Kralove B win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hradec Kralove B 2.06 – 1.51 Pardubice B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Kralove B win | 50.1% | 44.3% | +5.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.2% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Pardubice B win | 28.1% | 31.5% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | 65.2% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.0% | 44.9% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.3% | 65.6% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.7% | 44.7% | +6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hradec Kralove B 40.4 / Pardubice B 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.