Aritma Prague vs Admira Prague
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-26 · 10:15 CET
DDLDL
LDWWLThe score model made an Aritma Prague win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aritma Prague 1.39 – 1.27 Admira Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aritma Prague win | 39.0% | 28.8% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Admira Prague win | 33.5% | 44.8% | -11.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 52.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 32.3% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 56.7% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 36.5% | -3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aritma Prague 26.5 / Admira Prague 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aritma Prague vs Admira Prague in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.