Admira Prague vs Pribram B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-23 · 10:15 CET
LWLLL
LLWLWThe score model made an Admira Prague win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Admira Prague 1.58 – 1.28 Pribram B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admira Prague win | 44.1% | 56.7% | -12.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 22.3% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Pribram B win | 30.6% | 21.1% | +9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.7% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Admira Prague 40.6 / Pribram B 23.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.