Slavia Prague U20 vs Plzen B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-22 · 10:15 CET
WDLLD
DWWLWThe score model made a Plzen B win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Prague U20 1.62 – 1.94 Plzen B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague U20 win | 32.4% | 32.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 26.1% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Plzen B win | 45.4% | 41.7% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 58.0% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.7% | 37.4% | +10.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | 60.8% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.0% | 39.9% | +7.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Prague U20 24.3 / Plzen B 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.