Pisek vs Loko Praha
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
WDLLD
WDDWDThe score model made a Pisek win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pisek 1.34 – 0.92 Loko Praha.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisek win | 46.2% | 52.8% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 24.5% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Loko Praha win | 25.6% | 22.7% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 54.6% | -15.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 33.6% | -14.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 56.6% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 37.7% | -7.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pisek 40.1 / Loko Praha 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.