Dukla Prague B vs Kraluv Dvur
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-16 · 10:15 CET
LDWDL
DWWWLThe score model made a Dukla Prague B win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dukla Prague B 1.95 – 1.72 Kraluv Dvur.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dukla Prague B win | 43.8% | 39.5% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Kraluv Dvur win | 34.4% | 35.9% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | 64.0% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.0% | 43.7% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 70.5% | 66.6% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.0% | 44.2% | +5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dukla Prague B 40.1 / Kraluv Dvur 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.