Kraluv Dvur vs Plzen B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
DWWWL
DWWLWThe score model made a Plzen B win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 77%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kraluv Dvur 1.83 – 2.23 Plzen B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraluv Dvur win | 32.3% | 31.3% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 24.6% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Plzen B win | 47.4% | 44.1% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.1% | 63.6% | +13.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57.9% | 44.4% | +13.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 75.1% | 65.9% | +9.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.0% | 43.7% | +10.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kraluv Dvur 29.4 / Plzen B 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.