Motorlet Prague vs Bohemians 1905 B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-07 · 18:00 CET
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LDLWLThe score model made a Motorlet Prague win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motorlet Prague 1.59 – 1.43 Bohemians 1905 B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motorlet Prague win | 41.3% | 52.2% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Bohemians 1905 B win | 34.3% | 23.1% | +11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 56.6% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 36.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 57.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 39.1% | +3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motorlet Prague 39.9 / Bohemians 1905 B 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.