Qingdao West Coast vs Qingdao Hainiu
Super League, China · 2026-08-02 · 10:00
The score model makes a Qingdao West Coast win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qingdao West Coast 1.64 – 1.08 Qingdao Hainiu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao West Coast win | 50.2% | 54.1% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.2% | +1.2% |
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 24.4% | 21.7% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 58.4% | -7.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 37.6% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 58.3% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 40.0% | -9.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qingdao West Coast 38.6 / Qingdao Hainiu 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.