Qingdao West Coast vs Qingdao Hainiu
Super League, China · 2026-08-02 · 12:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Qingdao West Coast win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qingdao West Coast 1.64 – 1.08 Qingdao Hainiu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao West Coast win | 50.1% | 53.5% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 24.3% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 24.7% | 22.3% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 58.5% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 37.6% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 58.8% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 40.2% | -9.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qingdao West Coast 38.5 / Qingdao Hainiu 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.