Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Yunnan Yukun
Super League, China · 2026-08-01 · 13:00 CET
LDDWW
WWDLWThe score model made a Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1.80 – 1.31 Yunnan Yukun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 48.6% | 39.9% | +8.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Yunnan Yukun win | 27.5% | 33.7% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 57.4% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 36.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 61.0% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 39.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 42.9 / Yunnan Yukun 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.