Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Yunnan Yukun
Super League, China · 2026-08-01 · 11:00
The score model makes a Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1.80 – 1.31 Yunnan Yukun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 48.7% | 36.9% | +11.7% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.6% | -2.8% |
| Yunnan Yukun win | 27.6% | 36.5% | -8.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 57.0% | +3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 36.3% | +1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 60.6% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 39.1% | +0.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 43.1 / Yunnan Yukun 31.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.