Chengdu Rongcheng vs Wuhan Three Towns
Super League, China · 2026-08-01 · 12:00
The score model makes a Chengdu Rongcheng win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chengdu Rongcheng 2.43 – 0.78 Wuhan Three Towns.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chengdu Rongcheng win | 73.6% | 69.5% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 16.6% | 18.2% | -1.6% |
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 9.8% | 12.2% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 66.0% | -3.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.9% | 46.0% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 56.0% | -6.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.4% | 45.8% | -0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chengdu Rongcheng 44 / Wuhan Three Towns 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.