Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Professional
Super League, China · 2026-08-01 · 11:35
The score model makes a Beijing Guoan win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 75%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 2.46 – 1.43 Zhejiang Professional.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan win | 59.8% | 59.8% | +0.0% |
| Draw | 19.1% | 20.8% | -1.6% |
| Zhejiang Professional win | 21.0% | 19.4% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.6% | 70.5% | +4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.5% | 50.9% | +3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.9% | 66.0% | +3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 49.3% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Beijing Guoan 43.1 / Zhejiang Professional 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.