Henan Songshan Longmen vs Dalian Yingbo
Super League, China · 2026-07-31 · 11:35
The score model makes a Henan Songshan Longmen win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Henan Songshan Longmen 1.70 – 1.00 Dalian Yingbo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 53.6% | 50.9% | +2.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.6% | +0.2% |
| Dalian Yingbo win | 21.7% | 24.5% | -2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 60.3% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 39.7% | -11.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 61.2% | -9.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 41.4% | -5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Henan Songshan Longmen 43.1 / Dalian Yingbo 30.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.