CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-14 · 20:15 CET
LWLWW
WLLDDThe score model made a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.40 – 0.95 Cherno More.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 46.8% | 51.4% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Cherno More win | 25.2% | 20.7% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 43.9% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 24.3% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | 47.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 30.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA 1948 Sofia 43.6 / Cherno More 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.