Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-10 · 18:00 CET
WLWDD
DLWDLThe score model made a Slavia Sofia win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 1.07 – 1.08 Slavia Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa win | 34.6% | 46.3% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 28.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Slavia Sofia win | 34.9% | 25.0% | +9.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.3% | 43.2% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.0% | 23.6% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 48.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 30.2% | -7.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Vratsa 43.6 / Slavia Sofia 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.