Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-10 · 18:00 CET
WWDLL
LWDLDThe score model makes a Botev Vratsa win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Slavia Sofia win — 34.5% vs 24.9% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 1.08 – 1.07 Slavia Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa win | 35.0% | 47.4% | -12.3% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.7% | +2.7% |
| Slavia Sofia win | 34.5% | 24.9% | +9.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 44.1% | -7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 24.3% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 48.3% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 30.0% | -7.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Vratsa 43.8 / Slavia Sofia 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.