Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-10 · 20:15 CET
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LDDDLThe score model made a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.78 – 1.01 Spartak Varna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv win | 55.2% | 60.1% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.0% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Spartak Varna win | 20.8% | 15.8% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 52.4% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 31.8% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 50.4% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 36.2% | -6.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Plovdiv 43 / Spartak Varna 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.