Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-09 · 18:15
The score model makes an CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 62%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 0.70 – 1.74 CSKA Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia win | 14.2% | 15.7% | -1.5% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 22.7% | +1.0% |
| CSKA Sofia win | 62.0% | 61.6% | +0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 50.4% | -6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 29.5% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 47.7% | -5.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 34.6% | -9.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Septemvri Sofia 40.2 / CSKA Sofia 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.