Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-09 · 20:15 CET
WDLLL
WDWWDThe score model made a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 62%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 0.70 – 1.74 CSKA Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia win | 14.2% | 14.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 22.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| CSKA Sofia win | 62.0% | 63.8% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 50.3% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 29.3% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 46.6% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 34.6% | -9.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Septemvri Sofia 40 / CSKA Sofia 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.