Cherno More vs Ludogorets
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-09 · 18:00 CET
WLLDD
WDDWWThe score model made a Ludogorets win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cherno More 0.70 – 1.44 Ludogorets.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More win | 17.7% | 19.6% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 26.1% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Ludogorets win | 54.6% | 54.3% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.1% | 47.2% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.9% | 27.1% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.8% | 49.2% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 32.8% | -8.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cherno More 42.9 / Ludogorets 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.