Lok. Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-08 · 18:00 CET
LDLDL
LWLWWThe score model made a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Sofia 1.18 – 1.65 CSKA 1948 Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Sofia win | 27.1% | 32.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 29.1% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 47.8% | 38.6% | +9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 48.4% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 28.4% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 54.3% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 33.1% | +8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Sofia 43.8 / CSKA 1948 Sofia 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.