Levski Sofia vs Lok. Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-07 · 20:15 CET
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LLLWLThe score model made a Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome at 67%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.88 – 0.61 Lok. Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia win | 67.4% | 68.4% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 20.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Lok. Plovdiv win | 11.0% | 11.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 51.1% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 30.4% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.1% | 42.9% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 34.8% | -10.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levski Sofia 43.3 / Lok. Plovdiv 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.