Sport Recife vs Goias
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
DLWDL
WDWWWThe score model makes a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sport Recife win — 49.0% vs 33.3% implied (+15.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.59 – 1.10 Goias.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 49.0% | 33.3% | +15.7% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.9% | -1.8% |
| Goias win | 26.9% | 40.7% | -13.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 54.0% | -3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 33.4% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 58.0% | -5.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 37.6% | -1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sport Recife 42.2 / Goias 53.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sport Recife vs Goias in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.