Sao Bernardo vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
DLWWL
DDLWLThe score model makes a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 55.8% vs 46.0% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.81 – 1.10 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 54.5% | 47.7% | +6.9% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 28.0% | -5.9% |
| Athletic Club win | 23.3% | 24.3% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 46.0% | +9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 26.3% | +7.1% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 50.1% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 32.0% | +5.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 30.1 / Athletic Club 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sao Bernardo vs Athletic Club in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.