Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
LDDLL
LLWLWThe score model makes an Operario-PR win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 56.0% vs 51.2% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ponte Preta 1.07 – 1.86 Operario-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta win | 22.0% | 18.3% | +3.7% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.0% | -2.2% |
| Operario-PR win | 56.3% | 57.7% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 51.2% | +4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 31.1% | +2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 50.3% | +4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.5% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ponte Preta 42.1 / Operario-PR 53.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.