Londrina vs Nautico
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
DWLLL
LDLWLThe score model makes a Londrina win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Nautico win — 28.9% vs 15.3% implied (+13.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Londrina 1.77 – 1.31 Nautico.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina win | 48.7% | 62.7% | -14.1% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 22.0% | +0.4% |
| Nautico win | 28.9% | 15.3% | +13.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 53.3% | +6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 32.5% | +4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 48.9% | +11.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 37.0% | -0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Londrina 34.1 / Nautico 30.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Londrina vs Nautico in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.