Juventude vs Botafogo SP
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
DDWDW
WWWDWThe score model makes a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 47.2% vs 42.4% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventude 1.75 – 0.81 Botafogo SP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 60.0% | 55.4% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 26.5% | -3.9% |
| Botafogo SP win | 17.4% | 18.2% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 42.4% | +4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 23.4% | +2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.6% | 44.1% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 29.7% | +1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Juventude 33.1 / Botafogo SP 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Juventude vs Botafogo SP in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.