Fortaleza vs Vila Nova FC
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
DWDDL
WDLDWThe score model makes a Fortaleza win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Fortaleza win — 46.2% vs 42.2% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.37 – 0.98 Vila Nova FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza win | 46.2% | 42.2% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 30.6% | -4.2% |
| Vila Nova FC win | 27.4% | 27.2% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 40.1% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 21.3% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 46.5% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 28.1% | +0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Fortaleza 30.2 / Vila Nova FC 57.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fortaleza vs Vila Nova FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.