CRB vs Ceara
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
DLWLW
LDLLLThe score model makes a CRB win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 59.1% vs 55.6% implied (+3.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CRB 2.14 – 0.93 Ceara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRB win | 65.5% | 65.0% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 18.9% | 21.6% | -2.6% |
| Ceara win | 15.6% | 13.5% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 55.6% | +3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 34.8% | +1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 50.5% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 38.5% | +2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: CRB 57.8 / Ceara 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CRB vs Ceara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.