Atletico GO vs Cuiaba
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes an Atletico GO win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cuiaba win — 24.9% vs 13.5% implied (+11.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico GO 1.38 – 0.90 Cuiaba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico GO win | 48.6% | 63.3% | -14.7% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 23.2% | +3.3% |
| Cuiaba win | 24.9% | 13.5% | +11.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 48.1% | -8.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 28.2% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 45.0% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 33.3% | -3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Atletico GO 49.9 / Cuiaba 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Atletico GO vs Cuiaba in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.