America MG vs Avai
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-14 · 20:30 CET
LWWWW
WDLLWThe score model makes an America MG win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: America MG win — 40.8% vs 25.7% implied (+15.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: America MG 1.22 – 1.04 Avai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| America MG win | 40.8% | 25.7% | +15.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.1% | +1.4% |
| Avai win | 31.7% | 48.2% | -16.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 49.3% | -9.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 28.7% | -9.3% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 52.8% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 33.6% | -6.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: America MG 54 / Avai 57.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open America MG vs Avai in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.