Nautico vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-08 · 01:30 CET
LLDLW
WDLWLThe score model makes a CRB win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Nautico win — 32.0% vs 25.3% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.35 – 1.63 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 32.0% | 25.3% | +6.8% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.2% | -1.8% |
| CRB win | 44.5% | 49.5% | -5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 55.5% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 34.6% | +0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 57.3% | +1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 38.5% | -1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Nautico 29.5 / CRB 56.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nautico vs CRB in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.