Ceara vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-08 · 23:15 CET
WLDLL
LLWWWThe score model makes a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: America MG win — 23.4% vs 17.8% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.70 – 1.03 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 53.3% | 57.0% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 25.2% | -1.9% |
| America MG win | 23.4% | 17.8% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 49.3% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 28.8% | +0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 48.9% | +3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 34.7% | -0.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ceara 41.4 / America MG 53.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ceara vs America MG in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.