Athletic Club vs Atletico GO
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-08 · 20:00 CET
LDDLW
LDDLDThe score model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Athletic Club win — 37.4% vs 24.8% implied (+12.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.25 – 1.23 Atletico GO.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 37.4% | 24.8% | +12.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.7% | -1.4% |
| Atletico GO win | 36.3% | 47.5% | -11.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 46.6% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 26.6% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 50.1% | -0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 32.1% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Athletic Club 45.5 / Atletico GO 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Athletic Club vs Atletico GO in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.