Vila Nova FC vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-08 · 00:30 CET
DWDLD
LWWLWThe score model makes a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Criciuma win — 31.7% vs 28.3% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.24 – 1.05 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 41.0% | 41.4% | -0.3% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 30.4% | -3.1% |
| Criciuma win | 31.7% | 28.3% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 39.5% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 20.6% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 46.6% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 28.0% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 57.5 / Criciuma 49.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vila Nova FC vs Criciuma in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.