Novorizontino vs Fortaleza
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-07 · 20:10 CET
WWDWW
WDWDDThe score model makes a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Novorizontino win — 56.3% vs 51.8% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.63 – 0.84 Fortaleza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 56.3% | 51.8% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 27.3% | -3.3% |
| Fortaleza win | 19.8% | 20.9% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 45.6% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 25.1% | -1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 48.9% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 31.8% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Novorizontino 57.4 / Fortaleza 29.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Novorizontino vs Fortaleza in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.