Avai vs Sao Bernardo
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-07 · 20:00 CET
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LDLWWThe score model makes an Avai win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sao Bernardo win — 32.0% vs 23.4% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avai 1.37 – 1.16 Sao Bernardo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai win | 42.2% | 48.5% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 28.1% | -2.4% |
| Sao Bernardo win | 32.0% | 23.4% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 45.0% | +1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 25.3% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 49.5% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 31.4% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Avai 57.5 / Sao Bernardo 29.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Avai vs Sao Bernardo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.