Operario-PR vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-06 · 23:30 CET
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WDLWDThe score model makes an Operario-PR win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sport Recife win — 36.3% vs 32.4% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Operario-PR 1.41 – 1.35 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR win | 39.1% | 39.2% | -0.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 28.4% | -3.8% |
| Sport Recife win | 36.3% | 32.4% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 50.8% | +1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 30.9% | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 55.9% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 35.0% | -2.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Operario-PR 53.6 / Sport Recife 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Operario-PR vs Sport Recife in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.