Botafogo SP vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-06 · 23:30 CET
WWWWD
LDWLLThe score model makes a Botafogo SP win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Londrina win — 25.8% vs 20.9% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 1.63 – 1.08 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP win | 50.4% | 53.2% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.9% | -2.1% |
| Londrina win | 25.8% | 20.9% | +4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 49.3% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 29.5% | -0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 51.6% | +1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 34.1% | -1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Botafogo SP 57.5 / Londrina 33.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Botafogo SP vs Londrina in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.