Sao Bernardo vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-04 · 00:30 CET
WWDWL
WLWLWThe score model made a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.67 – 1.00 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 53.2% | 32.5% | +20.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 28.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| CRB win | 22.6% | 38.7% | -16.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 47.2% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 27.1% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 53.5% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 32.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 26.1 / CRB 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.