Juventude vs Operario-PR
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-04 · 01:45 CET
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DWDLLThe score model made a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventude 1.39 – 0.62 Operario-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 56.0% | 53.2% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Operario-PR win | 16.5% | 19.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 43.2% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.5% | 23.3% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.6% | 46.3% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 29.6% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventude 30.3 / Operario-PR 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.