Fortaleza vs Nautico
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-03 · 02:35 CET
WDWDD
LDLWDThe score model made a Fortaleza win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.45 – 0.80 Nautico.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza win | 52.4% | 57.6% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 24.9% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Nautico win | 20.8% | 17.5% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | 47.9% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 27.2% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 48.5% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 33.0% | -1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fortaleza 26.1 / Nautico 26.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.