Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-03 · 22:00 CET
DWLWD
LWLLLThe score model made a Cuiaba win the most likely outcome at 73%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.96 – 0.50 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba win | 72.5% | 80.3% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 13.7% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Ponte Preta win | 8.4% | 6.0% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 61.5% | -16.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 40.5% | -17.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.7% | 40.2% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 42.5% | -10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cuiaba 42.1 / Ponte Preta 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.