America MG vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-30 · 00:30 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: America MG 0.69 – 1.06 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America MG win | 23.8% | 22.3% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.4% | 28.2% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Juventude win | 43.8% | 49.4% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.7% | 43.3% | -17.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.1% | 23.8% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 32.6% | 47.8% | -15.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.0% | 30.5% | -12.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: America MG 51.1 / Juventude 29.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.